Dear conference participants, dear organisers,
I am happy to be able to open this year’s NATO-EU roundtable discussions. They couldn’t be more timely.
I want to start with a simple fact: from the Estonian perspective, both NATO and the EU are critical for our continued existence as a free, democratic, and sovereign nation. This is not just a view shared among politicians and civil servants. All of Estonian society understands this truth because it is very simple to understand. Without NATO, without the EU, and all our allies and fellow member states, we would, or would have perhaps already, faced the fate that has befallen to other neighbours of Russia. Invasion, occupation, military intimidation, erosion of our sovereignty.
Before the Second World War, Estonia was armed to the teeth – we had four divisions, defence expenditure in 1938 made up more than 20% of total government spending, there was a substantial territorial defence organisation of 43 000, in addition to a large number of conscripts and trained reserves.
And yet, none of it made any difference. It made no difference, because Estonia was alone – we were not even successful in forming a defensive regional alliance with our neighbours. Our declared policy of neutrality provided no protection from the aggressor.
This is why we value the membership of NATO and the European Union, and the contributions our allies make to our defence, so highly today. This is why Estonia is committed to supporting our allies and partners to ensure their security. In Aghanistan, Mali, Mozambique, Iraq, and so on. Maintaining unity and solidarity among allies in NATO and member states in the European Union is an existential question. For all of us.
Estonia has learned the lesson: united we stand, divided we fall. And what is clear, is that divided, we will bow our heads to the rules of any agressor.
Here, I would like to reject the idea that there is a ‘third way’ for Europe in the international system between the competing giants - America and China. I don’t believe that it is neither realistic nor desirable for Europe to seek for a role separated of the United States. Why?
Most importantly, America and Europe are, in the end, fighting for the same thing – firstly, our shared values, and secondly, our shared security. I also strongly doubt that we can be more successful in standing up for European interests on our own, nor do I think that the US could be very successful without Europe. Churchill’s maxim that ‘the only thing worse than fighting with allies, is fighting alone’, still stands.
There are certainly fears among Europeans that the US reorientation to Asia Pacific inevitably means a lesser commitment to Europe. The military presence of US forces in Europe has increased, rather than decreased. Trade volumes are at an all-time high. Political dialogue is robust. But even leaving this aside, by no means is it in our interest to speaks about dealing with the challenges of the Asia Pacific and European security as mutually exclusive endeavours.
This is why the stakes of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine are much greater than the future of Ukraine, or of Eastern Europe, or Europe. What we are witnessing, is in effect a challenge to the Euro-Atlantic security architecture as a whole, it is an effort to break the trans-Atlantic link between America and Europe, and by that, reduce the American role globally. Calls for separate paths for the US and Europe serve the interests of Russia, and China.
Speaking of shared security, the United States is more critical to European security than ever. There is simply no replacement to the military capability the US brings to NATO, including a credible nuclear deterrent. Russia’s war in Ukraine has shown that the nuclear dimension is highly important in today’s conflicts, and with China upgrading its own nuclear arsenal, its role is likely to increase, not decrease.
This is, of course, not to say that Europe shouldn’t increase its own military capabilities, on the contrary. While there are already some encouraging decisions by European countries, we are far from fulfilling the Wales Defence Investment Pledge, made nearly ten years ago, and that was intended as a response to a much less critical situation. So we have work to do.
That said, I firmly believe that Europe can and should be an equal partner to America. This is what we should be talking about. The European contribution is essential, as evidenced by the very important ways in which the EU’s extensive sanctions are helping to contain Russia. Russian exports have sharply fallen. Russia is losing the economic war, and European efforts are making an irreplaceable contribution to that.
Additionally, the EU member states and institutions have channelled 12 billion euros worth of military support to Ukraine, with overall EU support reaching over 67 billion euros. This is remarkable, and certainly on a par with the United States.
Finally, I don’t advocate sleepwalking into an uncontrolled rivalry, military or non-military, with China or any other state which does not share our wish for a rules based international order. I’m absolutely certain that we mustn’t lose sight of the very real and increasing dangers that threaten all of us globally, climate change first and foremost.
And yet, it is prudent to ensure that we defend the integrity of our political systems, economies, and societies. It is prudent to contain the harmful effects that come from those who seek to dominate others with military or economic means. And we can only do it together, Europe, and the United States, NATO and the EU. United we stand.
I wish you all insightful discussions at this conference.
Thank you!
