Dear foreign policy experts, dear friends,
First, let me express my gratitude for this opportunity to discuss the importance of Arctic security with experts who must deal with this issue on a daily basis.
I am looking forward to our discussion with hope to learn more about the topic (as I am a scientist in completely different fields, I feel almost as a student here todayJ).
In my introduction, I would like to touch upon two important aspects, or layers of Arctic security, and the relevant actors who are involved:
First, the human security concerning the future of humankind and secondly, the hard security.
Thinking about the human security, we must start with the well-known conclusion that polar regions are important regulators of the planet’s climate system and, at the same time, are most affected by climate change.
The extent of Arctic sea ice is one of the most prominent indicators of climate change. Changes are happening fast and we know that the consequences of its extreme warming will have a profound impact on the rest of the planet.
This is why, Estonia is first, and foremost focused on the environmental protection, sustainable development of the Arctic, and scientific research. We highly value the cooperation and practical work done in bodies such as the Arctic Council. We value its constructive role that focuses on cooperation in responding to the impacts of climate change, the Arctic's fragile environment, and its sustainable development.
This is why, Estonia decided to apply to become an observer at the Arctic Council. We care about the developments in the Arctic, as it clearly affects us. We are the northernmost non-Arctic country not yet part of the Council. We know the Arctic – some of the most prominent 19th century explorers of the Arctic region were from Estonia, and some of our most prominent researchers today are involved in investigating the past, present and future of the Arctic region.
For example, we have scientists studying the polar ice cores preserving millions of years of Earth’s climate history. This helps us to build better climate models. Estonian ecologists were part of the group that reconstructed 50,000 years of vegetation history of the Arctic.
Did you know that before the last Ice Age, Arctic region was teeming with flowers? And that their loss was probably one reason for the demise of the mammoths? Our researchers are frequently vising Svalbard to study the plant and fungal ecosystems and incorporate these into global biodiversity models. Our scientists have extensively studied the life of indigenous peoples of the Russian Arctic and their traditions. There are competences in Estonia that can be brought at the service of Arctic research and safeguarding its environment.
This all was the focus of Estonia’s bid to become Arctic Council observer. Our biggest concern here was and still is, to make our contribution to tackle the climate and biodiversity challenges in order to provide a safe secure environment for all.
The 1959 Antarctic Treaty set aside the entire continent as a scientific preserve. We now understand the immense value of this decision as the collected scientific data has allowed us to fight the ozone hole and track the pulse of Earth’ climate. This could be a model for our approach to the Arctic. We believe that it is in everyone´s interest to maintain the Arctic as a low-tension area where international law is upheld and peaceful scientific interests prevail, we find it is essential.
Arctic Council and UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) are cornerstones of a peaceful Arctic. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also covers the Arctic.
Global warming is opening up new commercial opportunities for the Arctic. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to ensure that the Arctic remains a zone of peace, prosperity and constructive international cooperation. Not a battle ground for spheres of interests and control.
We always encourage full respect for the provisions of UNCLOS, which is considered customary international law, including the obligation to protect and preserve the marine environment.
Estonia has been and remains very interested in work on the nexus between climate and security, we were engaged in this as a non-permanent member in UNSC. The Arctic is a region where climate change is also affecting different layers of security. We need better analysis of the security implications of climate change worldwide, including in the Arctic, as well as better understanding of the tools in our toolbox to respond.
Estonia welcomes the fact that the new NATO centre of excellence on climate and security is being set up in an Arctic country – Canada. We also applaud the work being done on this nexus in think-tanks in Arctic states, also here in Norway.
Effective response to global challenges, such as environmental change, largely depends on accessible, interoperable and authentic environmental data and data-driven digital solutions. We have been promoting digital solutions globally in several areas. It is becoming more evident that digital transition can amplify green transition.
Here, I turn to the flag project of Estonian climate diplomacy – Data for the Environment Alliance or DEAL under UN Environment Programme. DEAL is an initiative uniting global efforts towards making quality environmental data accessible. It provides a platform for cooperation projects, between state and non-state actors on environmental data, data-driven solutions and latest technologies and supports the creation of global environmental data strategy by 2025.
Most importantly, this global effort would make quality environmental data accessible for all. Interoperable data exchange between governments and international organizations would allow us to use this global data to improve our policies and decision-making regarding environment. But not only, we can also detect the environmental changes fast and use this info to analyze how these changes might affect our security. Arctic region would certainly benefit from DEAL.
We also believe that working with Russia on environmental protection and sustainability projects is a long-term investment into security. It could help change the mind-set in the long run.
However, we cannot deny the fact that global geopolitical tensions are increasingly reflected in the Arctic. For people and countries in the Arctic, the tension in the region is still low. Global attention and strategic importance that is now being attached to the Arctic is often considered unwelcome distraction, but it is undeniably increasing.
The Arctic Council was one of the few cooperation formats that the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West had not affected. Unfortunately, we witness that this is now changing. The fact that despite the unity of the Western members, there has been no consensus in the Council to accept new observers to strengthen the Council, demonstrates this.
Estonia is very much interested in peaceful progress of the Arctic, but Russian and Chinese activities must be noticed and as everywhere else with regard to Russia – we must be prepared for unexpected developments.
This brings me to hard security layer of the many layers of Arctic security. Geopolitics in the Arctic is changing. Therefore, we must not only think of climate and environment when we talk about the region but also diplomacy and deterrence.
Today, we recognize three important players in the region: the Western Allies, Russia and China. This already demonstrates a major change when we analyse the security situation in the Arctic, as only few decades ago China played no significant role in the region.
Only few decades ago only 2 countries had an Arctic strategy, this has also changed. The Arctic is home to Russia’s strategic military capabilities, including the Northern Fleet and strategic nuclear forces. Russia has also built up its conventional forces on the Kola peninsula, near the borders of Finland and Norway.
Russia’s military interest is to protect its ability to operate in the North Atlantic and the European Arctic in the event of a conflict with NATO. But also, to protect maintaining total control of the transport corridor on its long northern coast and the hydrocarbons that lay in the seabed off the coast. This will be key to sustaining the current economic model of Russia.
At the same time, the Arctic and the Arctic Ocean, has been identified by Chinese military strategists, as a region of strategic importance. While China is more than 3000 km from the Arctic Circle it defines itself as a “near-Arctic” state. Chinese Arctic strategy has clear security implications as the Northern Passage gives access to the Chinese Navy to our backyard.
In 2015, for instance, China’s National Security Law included an article on a need to secure China’s activities, assets and other interests in the polar regions. It could be their economic lifeline in case of maritime blockade or other conflict scenarios in the Southern seas.
In the Arctic, we must keep an eye on Chinese actions in three areas: infrastructure investments, environmental footprint of their economic engagement and the possible deployment of dual-use technology in their scientific objects.
Considering all this, my question to you is, how long we can hope that Arctic´s security is just about human security? Undeniably, tensions have been growing in the Arctic for the past 15 years. NATO countries bear little responsibility for this. Socioeconomic opportunities arising from climate change and geopolitical developments, like Russia’s military build-up and China’s rise, are forcing NATO to take measures.
We fully support efforts to keep High North and the broader Arctic region free from conflict, respect the sovereign rights of Arctic states, and facilitate cooperation among Arctic States. Estonia trusts Northern flank allies - Norwegians, Canadians, Americans, Danes and Icelanders – immediate knowledge how to ensure defence up north rock solid, while respecting the principle on keeping Arctic low-tension area.
Nevertheless, we would also like to draw your attention to the fact that for Russians NATO’s Eastern flank begins in the Arctic.
The High North is the northern flank of NATO and the collective responsibility of allies is to maintain capabilities and readiness to protect this area. Allied exercises, such as the Cold Response coming up in March in Norway, are very important and Estonia plans to participate in this. They send the signal that NATO is there to defend Allied territory in the Arctic and practises this regularly.
Russia considers the Arctic as its resource basin the defence of which for them requires overwhelming military presence in the region. For this reason alone, NATO needs to pay attention and stay vigilant.
So here, I would like to conclude, looking forward to your comments and remarks. Thank you once again for an opportunity to exchange views here.
